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One can but hope....



Iraq, the Gulf states and the meaning of ‘change’



Notwithstanding the fact that Iraq has not known democracy or multi-party politics since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1958, let us consider for a moment what some of the consequences of a US-sponsored democratic transformation in Iraq would be:



Iraq would fall within the sphere of American influence, supplanting the role of Saudi Arabia, or at least eroding its regional influence. Baghdad rather than Riyadh would become the political role model Washington seeks to promote throughout the region, by means of a regime tailored to its specifications that also keeps it distance from Syria and Iran.



OPEC would become virtually an “American organization,” were Washington to assume effective control over Iraq‘s oil production, perhaps increasing its output to six million barrels per day. The neighboring states would fear ­-- and this is the key thing --­ being infected themselves by the bug of change in Iraq.



In other words, the Gulf states would be destabilized by democratic change in Iraq unless they change accordingly.

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